Forecasting Maternal Mortality with Modified Gompertz Model
Samuel Essamuah Assabil *
Department of Statistics, University of Cape Coast, Ghana.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The Gompertz model is one of the earliest most influential mortality models. The model dominated for more than 100 years and is still one of the most important models in the field of mortality. Even though the model was designed exclusively for human mortality, it has found its application in many fields. However, the model has not solely been applied to maternal mortality. The work, therefore, fit a modified form of Gompertz model to Ghana’ maternal mortality data (2016-2018) and the fit looks quite good. We also forecast with the model and the result shows that Ghana is far from achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) objective of reducing maternal mortality by 68 percent in the next 11 years. That is, the work shows that there will be an annual reduction of 2.9 percent in maternal mortality rate for the next 11 years. This reduction, however, is not enough to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) objective of a 6 percent annual reduction. To make the SDG objective a reality, Ghana needs a further reduction of 3.1 percent annually in its maternal mortality rate. This calls for intensifying programmes that improve maternal health and reduces maternal mortality.
Keywords: Forecasting, Gompertz Model, Maternal Mortality, Sustainable Development Goal.