Development of Hybrid Deep Learning and Reinforcement Learning for Intelligent Trading in Forex Markets
Olusina T. Aweda
Department of Computer Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.
Nancy C. Woods
Department of Computer Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.
Adebola K. Ojo
*
Department of Computer Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Forex trading, a $6 trillion-a-day market, remains challenging to work with due to its non-linearity, volatility, and noise. Most traditional approaches, such as ARIMA and SARIMA, fail to capture these dynamics and therefore tend to have low forecasting accuracy. In this study, we propose a hybrid model combining a Convolutional Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) network for Forex price forecasting and Deep Q-Learning (DQL) for trading strategy optimization. The CNN-LSTM model learns spatiotemporal features from historical data, evaluated using MSE, RMSE, and MAE. For trading decision-making, a DQL agent learns to maximize actions—buy, sell, or hold—through reward-based learning with epsilon-greedy exploration, experience replay, and target networks. Results showed that the CNN-LSTM model outperforms traditional models, achieving lower RMSE (0.0025) and MAE (0.0017). The DQL agent achieved a cumulative return of 49.2% and a Sharpe ratio of 2.87, surpassing rule-based methods. An ablation analysis confirmed the necessity of key components, such as experience replay and target networks, for stable learning. Statistical tests, such as the Diebold-Mariano test, further supported the predictive strength of the model. The hybrid model showed strong potential for real-time Forex trading, offering high precision and strong risk-adjusted returns. Future studies should incorporate macroeconomic variables, sentiment analysis, and multi-asset portfolios to enhance generalization and trading performance.
Keywords: CNN-LSTM, deep q-learning, forex trading, time series forecasting, reinforcement learning